Poland’s Excise Gamble Backfires

26 May 2026 Poland Radar 0 Comments

The Poland excise tax shortfall leaves a €1.1bn gap. Budget plans and rising duties failed to deliver expected revenue.

Lead: The government raised excise rates and expected billions more. However the Poland excise tax shortfall left the treasury with over 5.3 billion zł less than planned.

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Why the Poland excise tax shortfall matters now

The Ministry of Finance promised sizable gains from higher taxes. Consequently legislators included 95.8 billion zł from excise in the 2025 budget. However preliminary figures show only 90.54 billion zł in receipts. Therefore the shortfall reached a systemic gap over 5.3 billion zł. Moreover this shortfall equals funding for several university hospitals. In addition it roughly matches annual spending on the Maluch+ childcare programme.

Tobacco, beer and spirits: what went wrong

The government hiked tobacco duties aggressively at the end of 2024. Consequently cigarette excise rose by 25 percent, and heated tobacco by 50 percent. In addition e-liquid taxes jumped by 75 percent. As a result legal cigarette sales plunged by more than 7 percent between January and May 2025. Furthermore rolling increases pushed a pack price above 20 zł. Therefore the illegal market expanded quickly. The black market for tobacco rose from 4.3 percent to 7 percent by Q3 2025. Moreover analysts estimate lost excise from illicit tobacco at 2.8 billion zł. Brewers also felt the pinch. Beer excise rose cumulatively by over 40 percent since 2019. However beer receipts grew only 11.6 percent in that period. Consequently beer volumes fell 20 percent since 2019. Brewers warn that continued hikes will close regional breweries. Spirits followed the same pattern. Retail sales of spirits fell steadily since 2021. In addition illegal alcohol sales reached about 23 million litres in 2025. Therefore the treasury lost another near 1.8 billion zł from unreported spirits.

Budgetary consequences and political risk

Poland normally met or exceeded excise forecasts. However 2025 broke that trend dramatically. The Finance Ministry has not published a full explanation. Consequently observers fear the government misjudged consumer responses. Moreover the planned 2026 excise increase will raise duties again by 15 percent. Therefore critics ask why ministers expect different results. In addition lower excise receipts worsen public finances. The state could freeze spending, cut programmes, or raise other taxes. As a result ordinary residents may feel reduced services from public healthcare (NFZ) or slower infrastructure investments. Furthermore higher borrowing could affect interest rates and ZUS pension budgets later.

💡 GOOD TO KNOW: If you live in Poland as an expat, remember tax and legal terms. ZUS is the social security office. NFZ runs public healthcare. A mandat means a fine. PESEL is your national ID number. Avoid illegal tobacco or alcohol. Buying untaxed goods risks fines and criminal charges. Check receipts for Polish excise marks and banderoles. If you run a bar or shop, review supplier contracts and cost indexing to avoid sudden losses.

What should expats do now? First, avoid black market goods for legal and safety reasons. Second, budget for higher prices for alcohol, fuels, and cigarettes. Third, watch the 2026 budget debate closely, as lawmakers may change taxes or cut services.

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