Poland Faces Heavy ETS2 Heating Costs on Households

4 July 2026 Poland Radar 0 Comments

New report warns about ETS2 heating costs hitting Polish households hard; Social Climate Fund offers relief before charges begin.

New calculations show the Polish heating sector will face huge bills under the EU ETS2 carbon scheme. ETS2 heating costs will range from about 9.5 billion to 17.8 billion PLN per year. Consequently, analysts warn that most of these costs will reach household bills.

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ETS2 heating costs: national tally and who pays

A report commissioned by the Solidarność union gives the headline figures. It predicts between 9.5 and 17.8 billion PLN yearly for the whole heating sector. Moreover, the authors say households will absorb most of the expense. Therefore, families will see higher energy bills this decade.

However, Poland will feel the impact more than many EU states. The reason lies in climate. Polish homes heat longer than in southern Europe. Consequently, they burn more fuel. The ETS2 sets one carbon price across the EU. Therefore, identical carbon prices cost Polish households more in practice.

Policy debate, funds and the Social Climate Fund

Experts have already criticised ETS2 as unpredictable. The Warsaw Enterprise Institute warns that volatile carbon prices will harm planning. In addition, they propose replacing some charges with tax incentives for decarbonisation investments. Transport & Environment calculates ETS2 could raise nearly 300 billion euros EU-wide from 2026 to 2032. Moreover, they argue half should aid poor households and half should fund green infrastructure.

Crucially for Poland, the Social Climate Fund will start in 2026. The country may receive up to 17.6% of that fund. Analysts estimate this equals roughly 15.2 billion euros in total. Therefore, Poland can begin spending on insulation and heat upgrades before ETS2 payments begin in 2028. Importantly, governments may count costs incurred this year if they include them in national spending plans. As a result, households and communities can access money now for modernisation.

What households should expect and how to act

Several studies detail expected costs for typical homes. For a gas single-family house, experts estimate about 6,300 PLN total by 2031. Moreover, they project about 24,000 PLN by 2035. For coal-heated houses, costs rise faster. Analysts give about 10,300 PLN to 2031 and nearly 39,000 PLN to 2035.

In addition, poorly insulated homes will suffer most. Estimates show cumulative costs up to 77,300 PLN for coal homes by 2035. Therefore, early thermomodernisation gives big savings. Also, ETS2 will raise petrol and diesel prices. The ministry expects +0.29-0.30 PLN per litre for petrol. ING gives higher figures in a pessimistic scenario.

However, you do not have to panic. You have time. The fees start in 2028. The fund opens in 2026. Start planning upgrades now. If your boiler is younger than ten years, it will likely last to 2035-2040. On the other hand, older boilers should move to hybrid solutions soon. In addition, tenants can pressure housing cooperatives or owners for building upgrades. Note that many applications for public funds require a PESEL (national ID number), a Polish bank account, and proof of residence. Also remember common Polish institutions like ZUS (social insurance), NFZ (national health fund), and mandat (fine) may appear on public forms.

💡 GOOD TO KNOW: If you are an expat, check your eligibility for the Social Climate Fund early. Consequently, contact your local gmina (municipality) or building management. In addition, you may need a PESEL to apply for many grants. Therefore, register your stay and get advice from your city office. Also ask about communal insulation projects, because landlords often apply for funding. Finally, keep bills and invoice records for reimbursement claims.

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