New EU ETS2 Bill Threatens Millions of Polish Households

8 May 2026 Poland Radar 0 Comments

ETS2 will raise heating and fuel costs across Poland, hitting poorer households hardest. Learn what expats should know.

Poland announced a one-year delay for ETS2, but the cost will still arrive. Consequently, the new EU charge will begin in 2028 and consumers will pay for it.

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ETS2 explained: why costs will jump

The European Union moved the scheme by a year. However, the institution kept its full scope. From 2028 the charge will apply to home heating and road fuels. Formal sellers must buy allowances. In practice, prices will rise at the pump and on energy bills.

Three reports, one harsh conclusion

Polish researchers and banks produced three independent studies. Moreover, they found similar results for households. One study shows a family heating with gas will pay roughly 6,338 zł extra between 2028 and 2031. In addition, gas households may pay about 24,018 zł through 2035. Consequently, coal-heated families face higher sums. They could see 10,311 zł in the first four years. Furthermore, eight-year costs may reach 39,074 zł. In extreme cases, poor insulation may raise costs to 77,318 zł over eight years.

The Bertelsmann Foundation compared EU households. It expects Polish heating costs to rise about 372 euros yearly in 2028. However, Germany sees only a small change. Therefore, national tax systems matter. Poland spends 7.8% of household budgets on final energy. By contrast, the EU average was 5.1% in 2022. Consequently, the same surcharge hurts Polish families more.

Alior Bank models a market shock too. The bank predicts carbon prices will climb quickly by 2031. As a result, fuel prices may jump at once. Moreover, speculative buying could push pump prices up within days of launch.

Two waves of price pressure

The first wave starts in 2028. Fuel and heating grow costly at once. Analysts expect tens of groszy per litre extra for petrol and diesel. The second wave may arrive in 2031. Authorities plan to merge the new scheme with the older EU market. Therefore, allowance prices will align. That move could add more than 50 groszy per litre long term.

Why geography and housing matter

Poles heat longer than many Europeans. Consequently, households buy more fuel for winter. Analysts estimate the national heat sector will face billions in costs. In the worst scenario the bill may reach 17.8 billion euros. For perspective, that figure approximates Poland’s annual health budget.

💡 GOOD TO KNOW: Expats should prepare for higher utility and fuel bills. Apply for assistance early if you pay rent or heat with building systems. Sign up to local communiqués from your management company. Also, understand Polish acronyms: ZUS is social insurance, NFZ is the public health fund, and PESEL is your national ID number. Therefore, keep documents up to date for any benefit applications.

Home upgrades cost a lot. Ground-source heat pumps and deep insulation can cost over 150,000 zł. Moreover, block residents often cannot retrofit alone. Consequently, many tenants will see big heating bill increases without any option to change systems. The EU Social Climate Fund aims to help. However, available grants may not cover middle-class needs.

Act now if you plan changes. Get an energy audit before buying equipment. Moreover, budget 400-600 zł monthly to prepare for future replacements. Finally, engage your building community for joint applications.

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